Expected value of a batch of Star Drops.
| Tier | Chance | Expected × | At least one |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare | 50.00% | 5.00 | 99.9% |
| Super Rare | 28.00% | 2.80 | 96.3% |
| Epic | 15.00% | 1.50 | 80.3% |
| Mythic | 5.00% | 0.50 | 40.1% |
| Legendary | 2.00% | 0.20 | 18.3% |
“At least one” is 1 − (1 − p)n: over 10 drops the chance of seeing a legendary at least once is 18.29%. Rolls are independent, so this is the only thing the odds actually promise — it says nothing about when the drop arrives.
| Reward | Expected | Per drop |
|---|---|---|
| Coins | 318 | 31.8 |
| Power Points | 143 | 14.3 |
| Credits | 22 | 2.2 |
| Bling | 7 | 0.7 |
| XP Doublers | 262 | 26.2 |
Each resource reward pays a fixed amount for its rarity, so these are averages over many openings rather than what any single batch pays out.
| Reward | Expected | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Pin (9 Gems) | 0.34 | 29.4% |
| Spray | 0.32 | 28.1% |
| Pin (19 Gems) | 0.12 | 11.4% |
| Gadget | 0.09 | 8.9% |
| Epic Brawler | 0.09 | 8.5% |
| Star Power | 0.09 | 8.2% |
| Profile Icon | 0.04 | 3.6% |
| Hypercharge | 0.04 | 3.6% |
| Skin | 0.03 | 3.1% |
| Mythic Brawler | 0.03 | 2.7% |
| Pin (39 Gems) | 0.02 | 1.8% |
| Legendary Brawler | 0.00 | 0.5% |
Items have no attached amount, so the expected column is simply how many of them 10 drops pay out on average. The right-hand column is the chance of getting at least one, from the same 1 − (1 − p)n formula.
These are expectations, not a simulation. Nothing here is rolled: every figure is the probability-weighted average of the drop table, so opening 10 Star Drops will land above or below each of these numbers, often by a wide margin at small batch sizes. Odds table snapshot: 2026-09-16, maintained by hand because the API does not expose it.
